04.07.2021 – 08:44
Five months after his presidency, US President Joe Biden is in no hurry to change the core of his predecessor’s China policy.
He has maintained high tariffs on more than $ 300 billion in Chinese imports, extended sanctions on Chinese technology companies and gone further than former President Donald Trump by reviving dormant trade and investment talks with Taiwan despite Chinese opposition. .
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who on Thursday warned “foreign forces” that they would “cut their heads off and shed blood” on a “Great Wall of Steel” if they tried to harass China – Biden may not be seen anymore better than Trump.
Both are “animals from the same hill” (yiqiu zhihe), as a Chinese proverb says.
In fact, Biden could be an even more formidable enemy: Unlike Trump, who ousted allies with insults, threats and tariffs, Biden has repaired America’s alliances and managed to form a relatively united front against China.
However, the Chinese leader would be foolish if he saw Biden as a partner.
Economically, the resumption of high-level talks could put the brakes on the economic disengagement process started by Trump’s trade war.
Dialogue could also devalue the increasingly dangerous test of willpower between China and the US over Taiwan.
As the weakest opponent, Beijing will certainly lose a showdown with the US if a crisis erupts today.
Most importantly, despite his tough policies, Biden remains the best prospect China has of repairing relations with the US.
What Chinese leaders need to understand is that, for the foreseeable future, strong bipartisan antipathy to Beijing and widespread anti-China sentiment in American society will support tough-line policies toward China, no matter which party occupies the White House.
At the same time, there are critical differences between Biden’s China policy and that of Trump and his potential Republican successors.
Biden and his fellow Democrats fully understand the dangers of a new Cold War.
An arms race with China will disrupt its agenda for rebuilding America.
Unlike Republican hawks who see no room for cooperation with China on any issue, including climate change, Biden believes working with China is not only possible but vital in tackling global issues, including pandemics and non-proliferation.
That is why China should welcome any invitation from the Biden administration to engage in high-level talks.
The key priority for China is to restore strategic stability.
With the military of both countries busy planning for war, Biden and Xi must ensure that such a conflict never erupts.
This will require Beijing and Washington to reach basic understandings and agreements on how to avoid a direct collision in the China Sea.
China’s first attempt to engage the Biden administration at an Alaska summit in mid-March failed miserably.
This is Xi’s second chance. Successful re-engagement with the Biden administration will help identify areas where tensions need to be managed and those where small steps towards cooperation can begin.
If China resumes dialogue and takes proactive steps to address U.S. concerns, Xi can at least hope to establish a more stable relationship than will be possible under any possible Republican alternative.
He would be foolish to miss the case.
