The European Union has lost the battle for the Balkans. This is the warning of a number of well-known American and regional experts, who propose that in the absence of EU membership, the best way for the region is to create a “Balkan Union”.
Meeting at a conference on the future of the Balkans hosted by EURACTIV this week, US analyst George Friedman and former Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy proposed boosting co-operation and creating a common Balkan market as an alternative for the countries. of the Balkans.
According to Friedman, the states of the region have reasons to distrust each other and any action in favor of one country is perceived as a threat to others. According to him, this is exactly why the international powers must work either with the whole Balkans or with any of its countries.
Friedman warned, however, that expectations are low on what can be achieved in terms of regional co-operation, as Washington could not intervene in the region as it had done before.
A Balkan Union?
Passy says the solution for the Balkans is for countries to work together. He even called for a “Balkan Union” that could function under the umbrella of the EU and NATO; which could ensure unity in various fields, such as economy, defense, sport and culture.
As an example, Passy cited an open public tender on mobile telephony in Bulgaria for the domestic market of seven million. “A similar tender for the entire Balkans with 55 million people would be very useful,” he argued.
“In the same way, we can have a common energy market, we can send a joint nomination to participate in Eurovision or UEFA, or in the Joint Balkan Space Program,” said Passy. He even suggested that all countries in the region be registered in the same time zone.
The former Bulgarian minister acknowledged that such a union faces significant challenges and cited Bulgaria’s veto on starting accession talks with northern Macedonia. According to him, however, this dispute can be resolved within a few months.
As another challenge, Passy mentioned the Russian espionage center in the city of Nis, which in his words does not seem to bother the EU. He further stressed that Serbia was currently the Achilles heel in the region.
“The influence of Russia and China is obvious, but that of China is more dangerous in the long run,” the former diplomat explained. According to Passy, the Three Seas Initiative must involve Serbia before Belgrade can join the EU and NATO.
Blackmail and mistrust
Mira Milošević, an expert at the Royal Institute of Spain, says the EU had already lost the battle for the Balkans. She said that the Balkan nations do not trust each other, but added that they do not trust the great powers either.
“Kosovo or Albania, for example, is seen in the United States as a savior. “Serbia and parts of Bosnia see Russia or China as saviors,” she said.
According to her, Serbia is blackmailing the great powers with the argument that if you do not want to help us, we have a plan “B”.
She said Russia may be the most visible actor in the Balkans, but China was more dangerous. “Russia is present in the region purely historically, but China, with its economic strength and long-term strategy, poses a more serious challenge to European interests in the Balkans.”
“The EU has lost credibility and with the coronavirus it has lost much more credibility,” she said, referring to the EU’s inability to provide vaccines to the region. ”
Will anyone do what Sanader did?
Nemanja Todorović iptiplija, founder of the Center for Contemporary European Policy in Belgrade, recalled Croatia’s experience in EU accession, calling it one of the obstacles to the region’s progress in the EU.
Croatia’s prime minister at the time of the accession talks, Ivo Sanader, was considered the most successful leader in the Balkans, breaking free from the past, until he resigned in 2009 amid allegations of corruption.
“A few years later, we saw that he was one of the most corrupt politicians in the Balkans. When he undertook all the reforms in Croatia, he realized that he would be the first to be arrested by the anti-corruption police he himself created. “After that, no politician in the Western Balkans will complete reforms in the field of anti-corruption, organized crime or the judiciary,” said Todorović iptiplija.
According to her, the current leaders of the Western Balkans are not at all interested in EU membership because they are doing quite well even without it. (SI)