07.06.2021 – 20:21
Eduart Zaloshnja
On the evening of April 25, both Lulzim Basha and Edi Rama made a brief statement to the media. The face of the former shone with joy, while the face of the latter shuddered. Their appearances before the media started right after the CEC announced that, from its preliminary data, it turned out that the turnout had been almost 50%. This announcement is a good omen for Basha, and black for Rama. Therefore, everyone’s faces reflected those omen…
With almost 50% turnout, it was estimated that almost 1.8 million Albanians had voted. Knowing that the SP had received 765 thousand votes four years ago and counting the passage of some politicians (PDIU and LSI) with local influence on its side, the statistical ceiling for socialist votes was around 800 thousand votes. So it fell to about 1 million to have voted for opposition parties. Reminiscent of the 2013 elections, when the last rotation of power took place…
But after the ballot boxes were opened and all the votes were counted by the SP, PD and LSI counters, it turned out that the CEC’s preliminary assessment of turnout had been dramatically wrong. Only 46.3% of the voters on the lists (1.66 million) had participated in the elections, not 50% (1.8 million)… And of the valid votes, almost half had been received by the SP; which secured her 74 seats.
If we look at the history of the last four parliamentary elections (held with a regional proportional system), we notice that only in the year of the rotation of power (2013), the turnout was over 50%. In the other elections (which did not produce a rotation) the turnout was below 50 percent (see accompanying graph).
This electoral history should serve as a guide for anyone who wins the June 13th election within the DP.
Without inspiring the electorate to participate massively in parliamentary elections (whenever they take place), there can be no certainty about the rotation of power. The 800-meter-high electoral wall built by the SP can only be overthrown with a higher turnout of the opposition people. No electoral tactic or combination of coalitions / lists can be more effective than the massive participation of the opposition people in the elections…
