22.07.2021 – 18:39
Predicting the future is dangerous and often ungrateful. Opinion polls are not reliable.
Look at the changes in Germany, where federal elections are expected this September.
It is not at all clear who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor.
Perhaps the recent floods and casualties will revive the fate of the Greens. In neighboring France, President Emmanuel Macron is fighting for re-election.
We do not know what will happen in Northern Ireland, where the Good Friday Agreement of April 1998, which ended decades of horrific sectarian violence, is being undermined by the British government.
We do not even know if the Polish government will give up its ongoing attacks on the rule of law, one of the fundamental principles of the EU.
In neighboring Belarus, for almost a year, despite all the controversy, citizens have tried to protect the rule of law and fundamental freedoms. Authorities have destroyed all independent media and civil society. Prisons are full of young and old from all walks of life. The result is so hard to predict. But one thing is certain: Alexander Lukashenko’s regime has lost all legitimacy.
Even within the EU, some member states are investing considerable political energy in challenging fundamental freedoms including independent courts, an independent media and fundamental principles of the rule of law.
This could not have been foreseen in 2004, when Eastern and Central European countries joined the EU.
There are others unpredictable.
Will Europe finally eradicate the coronavirus?
And how will the EU and the United States deal with the growing cyber attacks and cyber-misinformation from China, Russia and Iran?
Despite this complex background, the EU faces three major challenges.
The first is reconciliation of short-term and long-term aspirations and interests.
The second explains to citizens that the status quo is not permanently defensible.
The third is unlocking inevitability.
The EU’s geo-economic and geopolitical agenda is based on curbing climate change, becoming carbon neutral and accelerating forward with digitalization.
These are ambitious long-term goals.
Their implementation and realization is in conflict with the governments of some member states. Whether it is the car industry in Germany, the coal mining sector in Poland, or the energy mix in France, politicians place short-term profits before long-term profits.
This is why the German Greens election program is novel. Long-term treatment is not avoided, in particular the financial cost of combating climate change. He wants an alliance with industry to implement radical changes in the way economies are structured.
Inevitably, the individual’s lifestyle will be affected. This is the second challenge.
Curbing climate change, shifting to carbon neutrality and advancing digitalisation is disruptive.
His achievement is intrusive. Its impact is catastrophic.
That is why, if Europe wants to be a global champion in tackling climate change, board leaders – businesses, civil society, jobs, educational institutions – must explain to their public why the status quo current is not defensible.
Lifestyles will have to change if the planet is to recover from current levels of man-made degradation and destruction.
Inevitability has a dark, insidious aspect, as Europe witnessed between 1938 and 1945. It replaces, at best, responsibility with indifference, at worst, with reconciliation and betrayal.
Given the great challenges facing Europeans – and the rest of the world – today, inevitability must be dispelled.
Translated and adapted by Carnegie Europe / konica.al