German elections take shape. The Greens and the Christian Democrats choose the candidates for chancellor
The contrast was noticeable. The Green Party of Germany has announced Annalena Baerbock as the first candidate for chancellor, a post which will remain vacant when Angela Merkel resigns after the elections in September.
Ms. Baerbock, a 40-year-old lawmaker, had won the approval of co-leader Robert Habeck, and both have turned the Green Party from a negligible party into a potential government leader. The process was well organized, the result was clearly communicated. Ms. Baerbock’s approval, at the party congress in June, will be a formality.
Meanwhile, the ruling Conservatives, namely Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), were embroiled in a fierce battle for the candidate. On April 20, after a week of tense negotiations, CSU chief Markus Söder finally handed over the seat to Armin Laschet, his CDU counterpart, a much less popular figure. Mr. Laschet faces great skepticism within the coalition and beyond. The process was “self-destructive”, complains Karin Prien, a CDU board member, although she expects the wounds to heal.
All major German parties have chosen the candidate. (Last year, the Social Democrats, a junior partner in the CDU / CSU coalition, appointed Olaf Scholz, the finance minister and vice chancellor.) Ms Merkel’s departure means this will be the first campaign without a chancellor at the helm, since the founding of the republic after the war.
Laschet
Laschet is often seen as the candidate who will follow Merkel’s policy in the CDU. He backed Ms Merkel in the refugee crisis, her most fragile moment, though she has clashed with him during the pandemic. He follows the CDU’s traditional policies on fiscal issues and is skeptical of strong measures to curb climate change. Scholz claims it is a safe solution, with a mild social-democratic nuance. An experienced man, self-confident and a little sluggish, his biggest challenge is his party’s low results in the polls.
Baerbock
Ms. Baerbock, a not-so-well-known figure outside party circles, until she won the co-leadership candidacy in 2018, is a whole other perspective. Her candidacy will prove or disprove two beliefs about the country. First, that 16 years of Merkelism and a year of sometimes mismanaged pandemic have fueled the desire for change in much of the country.
Second, if Ms. Baerbock, who intertwines central political leanings with an optimistic style of communication, is a credible follower of this change. In a warm, almost patriotic speech in accepting the candidacy, she praised German innovations, from bicycles to Covid-19 vaccines, adding that “changes must be made.”
The message will be reinforced by the image of a young and energetic woman running against older men who are part of a coalition that seems to have lost momentum over time. The Greens hope that the fact that Ms. Baerbock has no governing experience could return to her advantage for voters tired of the status quo. “She is the ideal choice for this challenge,” said Jamila Schäfer, the party’s vice president.
The Manifesto of the Greens
The Green Manifesto is full of ideas, from raising Germany’s ambitions for climate change to easing debt rules and raising taxes to fund public investment overload. All of this comes with a more comprehensive approach to politics. Ms Baerbock and Mr Habeck have cultivated business ties and have reached parts of Germany where the party has usually stalled, such as the east of the country.
Most Greens are cautious, avoiding reprimands for car use or interfering with people’s dietary habits, which once gave them a damaging reputation as a “ban party.” “We want to change the political and economic rules, not the individual,” said Sven-Christian Kindler, a party member.
Prior to the pandemic, Germans often argued that climate was the main political concern. About 30% say they can vote for the Greens (the party currently enjoys about 22% support, a few points behind the CDU / CSU). The Greens are a major ruling party, part of coalitions in 11 of Germany’s 16 states, running a number of ministries and working with almost all other parties.
The Greens’ new approach is also reflected in the management of party leaders, argues Ellen Ueberschär of the Heinrich Böll Foundation. Last year, Ms. Baerbock and Mr. Habeck praised the “legendary” pragmatism of the CDU, a custom they have instilled among themselves. Internal disputes and harsh party tones are already a thing of the past.
“With 8.9% (the percentage of votes won by the party in 2017), we can not change the big issues we support,” Ms. Baerbock said in a recent interview. Now everything is subject to the goal of gaining power. This includes finding a common language on foreign policy, defense and trade, which are not described in detail in the draft party manifesto.
Mr Laschet, who says the Greens are the CDU’s main rivals, is likely to point to Ms Baerbock’s lack of experience and the danger she could pose to a left-wing coalition. However, he must be restrained in his attacks. Because, at a time when Ms. Baerbock enjoys several options for coalition ties after the election, the CDU / CSU has no realistic way to retain power without the Greens as a partner. The party has not yet published a manifesto.
It is true that Mr. Laschet has often exceeded expectations and many things can happen within five months. However, Ms Merkel’s party is trying to explain why she deserves to stay longer in office than Merkel. In front of the Greens, she will find it difficult to prove this./ Translated by: Lira Muça
