21.05.2021 – 10:25
As reliefs are being deployed across Europe, we are slowly seeing a resurgence in travel fuel demand, not only in petrol and diesel, but also in aircraft fuels as travel and tourism gradually increase.
In recent weeks, there has been some optimism across Europe as fuel sales in the UK reached their highest level since the beginning of the pandemic restrictions in 2020. In addition, toll roads across France , Italy and Spain experienced their greatest use compared to the same period in 2019.
As European refiners produce more than twice as much oil as gasoline, the growing demand for passenger cars, freight transport and certain types of heating that use fuel seems promising. The IEA believes that oil demand in Europe could grow by 9% this quarter and 4% in the third quarter, based on current trends.
As pandemic restrictions are gradually easing across much of Europe and a greater reduction is expected for the summer months, demand is likely to increase for day-to-day travel, tourism and some industries such as manufacturing and freight. .
Demand for gasoline goes beyond Europe, with U.S. exports of light fuel reaching a nearly two-year high on Mars, while several North American refining interruptions called for increased imports. While exports have fallen slightly, they are still significantly higher than in the same period of 2020.
The lack of gasoline supply in North America and the closure of several major refineries across Europe have meant an increase in gasoline prices, making fuel more attractive than oil currently. But a return to pre-pandemic global industrial activity could see this change as demand for oil intensifies.
It is not just European refineries that have increased oil reserves this quarter, as delays in air tourism have led to large fuel surpluses, much of this extra fuel being blended into oil.
While there is a substantial supply of oil in Europe, ready to meet increased demand in the coming months, jet fuel may not be needed for other uses until the summer as air tourism is expected to increase significantly in line with vaccines. Covid-19 and easing travel restrictions.
The shift is being driven mainly by the US, which saw 1.85 million passengers pass through airports last Sunday. This is the highest number since the pandemic restrictions began in March 2020.
In Europe, both Portugal and the Netherlands have opened trips, and the UK has made it possible to travel to certain countries as a tourist. Moreover, just this week, the EU has announced that it will open its borders to vaccinated travelers. This could have a major impact on fuel demand, as a large percentage of American and Canadian nationals are now vaccinated. Most of the passengers registered at U.S. airports last week were flying home, however, with Europe opening its borders, all of these can be relocated in the summer months.
George Ferguson, senior aerospace and airline analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: “We think this summer will be a good summer”, said Ferguson. “The cheaper you can give miles of seats, the more capacity you put in the market, the closer to the 2019 levels.”
As North American refiners return to work, Europe continues its strong oil refining, and fuel demand looks set to grow steadily with ease of restrictions, travel-related fuel demand could once again be made forerunner of the oil industry.
Translated and adapted for Konica.al by RT
