08.07.2021 – 16:23
Former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is back where he started, regaining his position as head of the Civic Platform (PO), the party he led to electoral victories in 2007 and 2011, before continuing to serve as president of the European Council. . His task now is to return Poland to the good graces of Europe.
With an overwhelming victory over Rafał Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor and Poland’s most popular politician, Tusk has certainly returned in style and aplomb. But his victory has cast a shadow over a younger liberal politician who has built his political movement for some time.
It is hard to believe Trzaskowski’s claim that he does not want to break away and compete with the YES (where he will continue to serve as vice president).
Under its previous chairman, Borys Budka, the PO suffered a historic loss of support – falling to 15-20% in opinion polls – and was overcome by Poland’s 2050 move by journalist and activist Szymon Hołownia (who currently stands at 20- 25%).
Budka took over the presidency because Trzaskowski initially did not like the job.
But because Trzaskowski leads the “new” generation that took over the party from Grzegorz Schetyna in January 2020, Budka’s leadership created an unstable division of labor.
A party leader who does not represent the most powerful bloc within his party is doomed to failure.
There are generally two career paths open to Polish politicians.
If power is what you want most, you should try to lead your party, engage in local politics and become prime minister (or become a puppet master like Jarosław Kaczyński, the de facto leader of the current Polish government).
But if you are more interested in prestige and popularity – and especially if party politics bothers you – the presidency is a more appropriate aspiration; that office allows someone to reign rather than rule.
Tusk (like Kaczyński) is a clear example of the first type, while Trzaskowski is more of a “presidential” politician.
While Tusk mocked with fame that “sitting under the chandelier [e pallatit presidencial] he does not care “, Trzaskowski once admitted that he had never been so upset when he became an opposition MP. When he had the chance to lead the party, he dismissed it.
After narrowly losing the presidential election last summer, he promised to organize a “New Solidarity” movement, but later failed to pursue that project.
Now, the political situation has changed. There is a new movement organized by Trzaskowski, but coming out of the Poland of the Future Campus (a leading school for 1000 young people to be held in Olsztyn this fall).
Guests include prominent intellectuals and mayors of Prague, Budapest and other cities.
For his part, Trzaskowski wants to rely more on local government officials to mobilize support, taking advantage of the fact that the opposition still governs Poland’s 100 largest cities and half of its provinces. But, again, no one will be surprised if this strategy fails to lead to the creation of a new political party.
Trzaskowski and his entourage claim they are preparing for a showdown with Tusk, but the reality is that their interests are complementary. Because Tusk is not interested in the presidency, we can predict that he will promise to support Trzaskowski in pursuing that office.
Moreover, Trzaskowski certainly knows that an open confrontation with Tusk is dangerous.
After all, he still has to manage Warsaw every day, while Tusk, whose return dominated the Polish media, has plenty of free time to focus on local politics.
The former prime minister has just started a tour in Poland – and has drawn crowds.
In this context, it will be important to remember that no successful new party has been formed during the 20 years that Kaczyński’s Law and Justice (PiS) and YES have been the dominant forces in Polish politics.
Educating a new party will be as difficult now as in the past.
Since Hołownia has done little to show that he can actually lead, Poles will not know how strong a politician is until he faces his first crisis.
This could happen soon, as Kaczyński reacts to Tusk’s presence as a bull that sees red.
Whatever Hołownia’s talents, he will look boyish and gentle compared to Tusk.
However Tusk’s return is not without risk.
Why does a politician who has succeeded in everything now turn to Polish politics to run a party that has hemorrhage support?
Unlike YES, the PiS position has remained strong, due to its shameless dishonesty and recourse to populist aid.
Poles do not mind this filthy business.
And now that even more EU money from the pandemic recovery fund is about to be poured into the country, the PiS government will have additional funds available.
The question, then, is whether Tusk can be a credible people politician.
No other political style can win in a country that is so deeply infected with populism.
If Tusk’s seven years of service at the highest levels of EU power have made him an incorrigible technocrat, he could follow in the footsteps of former Polish Foreign Minister Bronisław Geremek, a symbol of intelligence he can never won more than 10-12% support party leadership competitions.
Tusk does not need to imitate Kaczyński by openly sucking elites.
But he needs to demonstrate a deep and genuine commitment to working-class and rural Poles. And even that may not be enough for PiS power.
Translated and adapted by Project Syndicate / konica.al
